Matchup Status (Week 13)
Games Completed (4)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | 18.4 | +11.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | 8.9 | -7.5 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | 15.1 | +11.8 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | 18.2 | +7.6 |
Games Pending (12)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 17.2 | 20.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 9.9 | 8.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | 7.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Opponent: 4th and pinches
Opponent Games Completed (5)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
Opponent Games Pending (11)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 15.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 11.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 17.3 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.3 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 |
| Devin Neal (bench) | RB | BE | 11.1 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.6 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | 11.8 |
Executive Summary
Week 13 limited analysis. Thursday games completed: Rice (29.4), J.Williams (26.9), Love (25.8 bench). Currently winning 29.4 to 18.4.
Key Insights
- Rashee Rice BOOMED Thursday vs LV (29.4 pts)
- Jordan Love and Jameson Williams boomed on bench
- Currently projected to win by ~30 points
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | TB | 17.2 | 20.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | BUST | LOW |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | JAX | 9.9 | 8.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LV | 18.1 | 18.4 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB/WR/TE | Tetairoa McMillan | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| K | Jason Myers | MIN | 8.5 | 9.5 | MODERATE | LOW |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 50.1% | 36.0% | 13.9% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Love | QB | 28.4% | 50.7% | 20.9% | MEDIUM |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 25.7% | 56.1% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Evan Engram | TE | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% | MEDIUM |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 25.3% | 50.4% | 24.3% | MEDIUM |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 21.1% | 53.5% | 25.4% | MEDIUM |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 21.1% | 58.8% | 20.1% | MEDIUM |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 20.8% | 60.9% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 19.4% | 37.0% | 43.6% | LOW |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 18.1% | 49.0% | 32.9% | MEDIUM |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.2% | 59.8% | 26.9% | MEDIUM |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 13.0% | 53.8% | 33.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jason Myers | K | 12.0% | 46.0% | 42.1% | MEDIUM |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 10.7% | 55.1% | 34.2% | MEDIUM |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 9.5% | 36.0% | 54.5% | MEDIUM |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 8.3% | 37.3% | 54.4% | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (GB vs DET)
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: QB6-10 ECR, 18+ pts all 6 starts, 1887 pass yds last 6 games, TB allows 5th most QB FPTS
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: 27
XGBoost: Boom 19% | Bust 44% (LOW)
Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 12.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: QUESTIONABLE, first game back since Week 4, coach said hot-hand approach, boom/bust RB23 ECR
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: 17
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX)
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: RB36 ECR, out-touched by Pollard 15-7 last week, 3+ catches in last 5 games provides PPR floor
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 20
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: ON IR - not playing
Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs DET)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN)
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: WR1 ECR, 7-game 20+ pt streak, MIN 28th vs WR, home favorite SEA implied 26 pts
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28
XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: WR8 ECR, clear CAR #1 target, but LAR D tough (only 3 WR TDs since Week 5), negative game script likely
Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 12
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: QUESTIONABLE after appendicitis surgery Nov 10, expected to play per ESPN report, first game back
Context: O/U: 45.5 | Def Rank: 18
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Rashee Rice (KC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)
Jameson Williams (DET vs GB)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Context: O/U: 45.0 | Def Rank: 16
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5, but LV zone-heavy defense favors his skillset
Context: O/U: 41.0 | Def Rank: 18
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Evan Engram (DEN vs WSH)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN, favorable WSH matchup but low floor
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 24
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIA)
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: TE6-11 ECR, 10+ PPR in 5 straight, MIA allows 4th most to TE, Kamara OUT boosts target share
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 26
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DET
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 18.2
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs WSH
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 7.5
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: TE21 ECR, only 3.2 catches/game with DEN, favorable WSH matchup but low floor
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs TB
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM 14.0
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18%
Notes: QUESTIONABLE after appendicitis surgery Nov 10, expected to play per ESPN report, first game back
Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs LV
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54%
Notes: ON IR - not playing
Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs GB
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 15.1
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs DET
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 8.9
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34%
Notes: ESPN + position bias adjustment (limited web search mode)
Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs LV
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 10.0
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24%
Notes: WR40 ECR, 10.8 PPR or less in 4 of last 5, but LV zone-heavy defense favors his skillset
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -36.0 pts | Median: +5.0 pts | Ceiling: +45.4 pts
Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Baker Mayfield | QUESTIONABLE | 16.7 | Shedeur Sanders | 5.9 |
Opponent Lineup Scenarios
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 132.4 | 57.0% | +4.9 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 125.3 | 64.2% | +11.5 |
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.0 | 1.3-27.4 | ↑90% ↓10% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 0.0-25.6 | ↑52% ↓15% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.5 | 1.8-15.6 | ↑12% ↓14% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | LOW | 24.0 | 19.3-40.6 | ↑96% ↓0% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | MED | 13.0 | 7.6-29.5 | ↑45% ↓0% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 29.4 | 9.8-25.3 | ↑80% ↓0% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | MED | 11.0 | 3.0-18.5 | ↑22% ↓21% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.8-17.8 | ↑14% ↓21% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.5 | 6.8-15.5 | ↑15% ↓8% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 25.8 | 9.0-27.2 | ↑61% ↓0% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.1-27.1 | ↑41% ↓17% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 1.4 | 1.0-15.6 | ↑10% ↓50% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 0.0-20.8 | ↑36% ↓22% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 26.9 | 1.1-21.4 | ↑51% ↓39% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 5.9-27.3 | ↑50% ↓4% |  |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 7.5 | 2.9-13.2 | ↑1% ↓30% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 13.2 | 0.0-23.3 | ↑50% ↓28% |  |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | MED | 28.6 | 10.6-40.1 | ↑76% ↓0% |  |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 14.5 | 3.4-32.0 | ↑30% ↓28% |  |
| DK Metcalf | WR | MED | 12.5 | 5.1-22.4 | ↑28% ↓10% |  |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 2.7-23.6 | ↑50% ↓26% |  |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.3-24.6 | ↑49% ↓23% |  |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 19.4 | 11.5-28.5 | ↑65% ↓0% |  |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.3-13.3 | ↑1% ↓36% |  |
| Harrison Butker | K | MED | 9.3 | 4.8-14.7 | ↑9% ↓12% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.5-12.8 | ↑1% ↓46% |  |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.4 | 3.1-19.0 | ↑28% ↓35% |  |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 4.8 | 0.6-10.8 | ↑0% ↓52% |  |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 0.0-24.3 | ↑32% ↓20% |  |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 11.1 | 0.0-21.1 | ↑22% ↓13% |  |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.8-27.8 | ↑15% ↓24% |  |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 8.9 | 2.0-16.4 | ↑14% ↓37% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 21% @ 25.5 | 21% @ 18.1 | 42% @ 14.2 | 15.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 17% @ 40.8 | 78% @ 25.0 | 5% @ 14.3 | 27.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 10% @ 31.3 | 40% @ 16.1 | 50% @ 9.6 | 14.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 60% @ 24.3 | 20% @ 18.6 | 20% @ 9.8 | 20.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 14% @ 16.3 | 71% @ 7.6 | 14% @ 1.3 | 8.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | 46% @ 14.4 | 45% @ 8.8 | 9% @ 4.0 | 10.9 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10% @ 20.2 | 63% @ 13.3 | 27% @ 3.9 | 11.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 22% @ 27.3 | 67% @ 22.1 | 10% @ 0.2 | 21.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 10% @ 19.0 | 81% @ 8.3 | 9% @ -1.9 | 8.5 |
Waiver Wire Notes
No waiver analysis in limited mode
Injury Concerns
No major injury concerns.
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 13 Discrepancy Log
No discrepancies detected this week.